I. Drastic Changes in Trade Pattern: The Era of "Net Export" Begins from "Import-Dominated"
(1) Supply-Demand Structure Reversal, Rewriting a Decade of Trade Trajectory
In 2025, China's chicken industry achieved a historic transformation, successfully shifting from a long-term import-dependent pattern to a net chicken exporter. This change marks a significant improvement in China's position in the global chicken market.
In terms of data, from January to November 2025, China's chicken exports soared to 966,700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 39.75%. This growth rate not only reflects the growing popularity of Chinese chicken in the international market but also demonstrates the strong competitiveness of China's chicken industry. Meanwhile, imports dropped to 650,700 tons, a substantial year-on-year decrease of 25.67%. The stark contrast between the surging exports and plummeting imports has made the trade deficit a thing of the past. In November alone, China's net chicken exports reached an astonishing 256,300 tons. At this rate, there is no doubt that China will become an important global net chicken exporter for the full year.
Behind this historic transformation, the continuous growth in the slaughter volume of white-feathered broilers has played a crucial role. Over the past five years, the slaughter volume of white-feathered broilers has been on a steady rise, breaking the 9 billion mark in 2025. With the continuous advancement of breeding technology and the widespread popularization of large-scale breeding, China's chicken output has increased significantly, not only meeting domestic market demand but also gaining the capacity for large-scale exports. Moreover, compared with other countries, China has obvious advantages in breeding costs, making domestic chicken more price-competitive in the international market and enabling it to easily gain a foothold.
(2) Plummeting Imports: In-depth Adjustment of Traditionally Dependent Categories
In terms of imports, China's chicken market has shown a significant trend of "both volume and price declining". Categories such as chicken feet and wings, which once occupied an important position in China's chicken imports, have now seen their import volumes drop by more than 30% year-on-year. Among them, chicken feet imports stood at 280,900 tons, accounting for 43.2% of total imports but a decrease of 129,000 tons compared with 2024. There are multiple reasons behind this change: on the one hand, overseas supply chains have fluctuated due to various factors; on the other hand, China's domestic alternative production capacity has risen rapidly, gradually meeting market demand for these categories.
Imports of bone-in chicken chunks also fell to 53,200 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 37.5%. This data fully reflects the growing independent capacity of China's domestic processing enterprises in terms of raw material supply. With the continuous development of the domestic breeding industry, processing enterprises can more easily obtain high-quality domestic raw materials, thereby reducing their dependence on imported products. This shift from import dependence to independent supply not only improves the stability and security of China's chicken industry but also lays a solid foundation for its further development.
II. Code for Export Boom: Chicken Breast Leads the Way, Emerging Markets Expand
(1) Chicken Breast Becomes "Export Ace", Accounting for Over 60% of Total Exports
In China's brilliant chicken export performance, chicken breast is undoubtedly the brightest star. From January to November 2025, chicken breast exports led the way with 602,200 tons, accounting for 62.31% of total exports, and a staggering year-on-year growth of 54.09%, becoming the core driver of China's chicken export growth. In November alone, chicken breast exports reached 76,100 tons, a month-on-month increase of 16.53%, fully demonstrating its strong competitiveness and sustained demand growth in the international market.
The rapid growth of chicken breast exports is mainly driven by its cost-performance advantage and alignment with market demand. Compared with Brazil, a major global chicken exporter, the export price of China's frozen whole chicken breast is about 15% lower, showing significant price competitiveness. Meanwhile, amid the global healthy eating trend, the high-protein and low-fat characteristics of chicken breast have made it a core raw material in ready-to-eat food, catering chains and other fields, with continuously expanding market demand.
The export market presents a diversified layout: traditional markets such as Russia and Japan have stable demand and high recognition of the quality of Chinese chicken breast; emerging markets such as Kyrgyzstan and Malaysia have grown by over 80%, becoming new drivers of export growth. The expansion of emerging markets not only enriches export channels but also optimizes the market structure, reducing the risk of fluctuations in a single market. Taking Kyrgyzstan as an example, its economic development and improved living standards have driven the growth of demand for high-quality meat. Chinese chicken breast has quickly entered the market with its quality and price advantages, and export volume has continued to climb.
(2) Upgrade of Processed Product Exports, Technology-Driven Value-Added Improvement
China's chicken exports have achieved simultaneous volume growth and structural upgrading, forming a dual-drive pattern of chilled/frozen meat and deep-processed products. In November 2025, chilled/frozen meat exports reached 78,400 tons, accounting for 66.5% of total monthly exports, remaining the main export force; processed chicken (conditioned products, canned food, etc.) exports were 39,500 tons, a year-on-year increase of 42%, showing a strong growth momentum and becoming an important symbol of export structure optimization.
Technological innovation and quality control upgrading are the keys to improving the added value of export products. Leading processing enterprises in Shandong, Jiangsu and other regions have actively introduced international advanced production equipment and management experience, generally obtained international authoritative certifications such as HACCP (Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points), and built a full-chain quality and safety control system. At the same time, enterprises have increased R&D investment, developing low-salt and high-protein deep-processed chicken breast products for different market demands, successfully entering high-end markets such as the EU and the Middle
East. Data shows that the per-ton added value of deep-processed products is about 30% higher than that of raw meat, significantly improving export economic benefits.
Taking Shandong factories as representatives, they have built modern processing chains, realizing deep processing of white-feathered broilers through advanced processes such as segmentation, marinating, tumbling, frying and roasting, with products covering a variety of characteristic cooked chicken products. With global qualifications and certifications such as BRC, IFS and HACCP, their products are exported to 36 countries and regions including Japan, the EU, Central Asia, East Asia, Southeast Asia, Africa and Russia. The high-end positioning of deep-processed products has enabled them to form a differentiated competitive advantage in the international market, with significantly higher premium capacity than ordinary raw meat.
III. Price Roller Coaster: Re-evaluation of Chicken Breast Value Driven by Exports
(1) Violent Price Surge in December, Setting the Largest Monthly Increase of the Year
In December 2025, the market price of chicken breast rose significantly. Driven by the combined effect of surging export orders and processing enterprises' inventory replenishment needs, the price of chicken breast increased by more than 2,000 yuan per ton in a single month, setting a record for the largest monthly increase of the year and achieving a rapid recovery from the low point of the year.
Specific price performance: the price of frozen whole chicken breast climbed, and the rapid rise in chicken breast prices formed a transmission effect, driving synchronous fluctuations in the prices of related categories such as wings and feet, with an increase range of 10%-15%.
This price fluctuation has had different impacts on various links of the chicken industry chain. Upstream breeding enterprises have benefited from the price increase, with significantly expanded profit margins, which in turn has promoted the expansion of breeding scale and the increase in chick placement to seize the market dividend. Downstream catering enterprises and food processing enterprises are facing cost pressures. Some catering enterprises have passed on the costs by adjusting menu prices, while food processing enterprises have alleviated the cost impact by optimizing production processes and adjusting raw material ratios to maintain production and operation stability.
(2) Supply-Demand Mismatch Intensifies Short-Term Market Conditions, Capacity Release May Stabilize Fluctuations
Although the current inventory of processing enterprises is only 15 days (normal level is 30 days), the production capacity of white-feathered broilers is at a historical high, with the slaughter volume in December increasing by 8% month-on-month. It is expected that the supply of chicken breast will gradually loosen in the first quarter of 2026. Industry analysts believe that this round of price increases is caused by phased supply-demand imbalance, and in the long run, with the stabilization of export channels, prices will return to a reasonable range.
In the short term, the low inventory of processing enterprises (reduced by 50% compared with the normal level) coupled with the concentrated release of export orders has led to an expansion of the market supply-demand gap, becoming the core factor driving price increases. Although the production capacity of white-feathered broilers is at a historical high, the release rhythm of short-term slaughter capacity lags behind the growth in demand, further exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance. In the long run, the production capacity of white-feathered broilers will be gradually released in the first quarter of 2026, the previous expansion of breeding scale will be converted into actual supply volume, and slaughter enterprises will also increase market supply by improving slaughter efficiency. It is expected that the supply-demand relationship in the chicken breast market will gradually return to balance, and prices are expected to fall back to a reasonable range.
The industry generally believes that this price fluctuation is a short-term market condition caused by phased supply-demand imbalance. In the long run, with the continuous stability of China's chicken export channels and the continuous improvement of the domestic industrial system, the chicken market will gradually enter a mature development stage, the price fluctuation range will tend to be gentle, and the industry's development resilience will be significantly enhanced. At present, large-scale processing enterprises have begun to lock in raw material supply by establishing long-term order breeding cooperation models to reduce price fluctuation risks; at the same time, enterprises are actively expanding the domestic market, improving market share through product innovation and channel expansion, and further enhancing their risk resistance capabilities.
IV. Future Outlook: China's Opportunities in the Reconstruction of Global Supply Chains
(1) Production Capacity Advantages Lay a Solid Foundation for Exports, Targeting Over 1 Million Tons in 2026
The successive commissioning of expansion projects by leading enterprises will further consolidate the production capacity advantage of China's white-feathered broiler industry and provide strong support for export growth. These projects not only increase production capacity scale but also play a demonstration and leading role in technological innovation, quality management, green production and other aspects, promoting the transformation of the entire industry towards high-quality development.
It is expected that China's white-feathered broiler exports will exceed 1.2 million tons in 2026, achieving a phased leap. The realization of this goal benefits from the synergistic support of optimized breeding technology, upgraded processing technology and deepened market development: on the breeding side, the application of efficient breeding models and advanced equipment has improved broiler growth efficiency and product quality; on the processing side, the introduction of international advanced production lines has promoted the improvement of product added value; on the market side, the expansion of emerging markets and the deepening of "Belt and Road" trade cooperation have broadened export space.
It is expected that the proportion of exports to "Belt and Road" countries such as Kyrgyzstan and Cambodia will rise to 25%, becoming the core engine of export growth. The in-depth advancement of the "Belt and Road" Initiative has created favorable conditions for China's chicken exports: the geographical proximity of countries along the route improves logistics efficiency and reduces transportation costs, trade facilitation policies reduce market access barriers, and deepened cultural exchanges enhance product acceptance. Multiple favorable factors are driving the continuous expansion of the market share of Chinese chicken products in countries along the route.
Data from the General Administration of Customs shows that 127 new chicken export-registered enterprises were added in China from January to November 2025, reflecting the continuous expansion of the export industrial chain. Newly added enterprises have enriched the export product system and met the differentiated needs of different markets with their product innovation capabilities and segmented market development advantages; the formation of industrial clusters has improved production efficiency and reduced comprehensive costs through resource agglomeration, further strengthening the international competitiveness of Chinese chicken products.
(2) Coexistence of Risks and Opportunities, Quality Control is the Key to Breaking Through
Currently, China's chicken exports are facing dual challenges: first, the tightening of overseas technical barriers. Regulations such as the EU's new veterinary drug residue standards have put forward higher requirements for the quality and safety of chicken products, raising market access thresholds; second, fluctuations in raw material prices. The rise in prices of feed raw materials such as corn and soybean meal directly increases breeding costs and compresses enterprise profit margins.
To address the above challenges, enterprises need to strengthen the construction of quality control systems: on the one hand, promote ISO22000 food safety management system certification to achieve standardized control of the entire production process; on the other hand, deploy blockchain traceability systems to build a full-chain traceability system covering "breeding-processing-sales", improving product credibility and market recognition.
Industry institutions predict that if China can successfully break into the high-end markets of Japan and South Korea, the export volume of China's chicken breast is expected to double by 2028 compared with 2025, promoting the transformation of China's chicken industry from a "large output country" to a "trade power". The Japanese and South Korean markets have strict requirements for food quality and safety standards. Entering these markets will significantly enhance the international reputation and core competitiveness of Chinese chicken products. This requires enterprises to continuously strengthen quality control, promote brand building, improve product added value, and accurately match the needs of high-end markets.
China's chicken trade transformation in 2025 is not only a structural change in import and export data but also a milestone event in the transformation of the white-feathered broiler industry from a "market follower" to a "rule participant". Against the background of the continuous rise in global protein demand, China's chicken industry, relying on the three major advantages of large-scale breeding, cost control and market development, is building a new export-oriented development pattern. In the future, with the deepening of technological innovation and the optimization of market layout, China's chicken industry is expected to play a more important role in the global supply chain and achieve a high-quality leap from a "large output country" to a "trade power".
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